Deliverable 4.1 “Catalogue of RWE relevant AD models and simplistic disease stage framework” previously provided an overview of published disease progression models. A systematic literature review identified a total of 40 models. For  each model, contextual information (including data sources and size, disease stage, population characteristics, etc.), model outcome, and required input variables were extracted. Additionally, three unpublished models developed by the EFPIA Consortium members were reviewed and described in a similar manner.

In this Deliverable, we select three models for external validation:

1. Handels Kungsholmen MMSE Model (Handels RL, Xu W, Rizzuto D, et Natural progression model of cognition and physical functioning among people with mild cognitive impairment and alzheimer’s disease. J Alzheimers Dis. 2013;37:357-365)
2. Novartis Longitudinal Model (unpublished prevention longitudinal model describing time-to- MCI and time-to-dementia in correlation with biomarkers time course, ROADMAP Deliverable 1, 2017).
3. Eli Lilly PenTAG/GERAS Institutionalisation Model (unpublished time-to-institutionalisation model, ROADMAP Deliverable 1, 2017).