Disease Modelling and Simulation

WP4 will identify AD disease models and test them using outcomes and datasets identified through WP2 and WP3.

Overall objective: Develop and validate a core disease progression model combining diverse datasets to facilitate analysis of disease trajectories and effect of interventions on disease trajectories (WP4)
Read more about the work of our Disease Modelling and Simulation team here.


  • Identify existing AD disease models and risk factors from the literature focusing on understanding and prediction of disease incidence and prediction
  • Establish a sequence of disease stages as a reference, and support Use Case 1 via a heat map ‘data cube’ of outcomes/variables, data sources and disease stage definitions, to be populated in collaboration with WP2 (outcome definitions) and WP3 (available data), in order to assess availability (cohorts, RWE, and possibly also trial data) and suitability of data for disease modelling in a way that is acceptable to stakeholders
  • Select disease models for validation based on availability of data
  • Validate selected disease models through confirmatory analyses (ideally in diverse settings) using independent datasets provided by ROADMAP partners
  • Support Use Case 2 with ‘hypothesis‐free’ analysis of disease trajectories
  • Support Use Case 3 by analysing pharmacological interventions from the modelling perspective
  • Use results in the three Use Cases to progressively enrich complex disease progression models in dialogue with other WPs
  • Establish guidelines for best practice on combining datasets for modelling and simulation in the domain of AD
  • In collaboration with WP2 and 3, document capabilities and actual use of available disease coding systems (e.g. ICD‐10, ICPC, DSM) to capture AD throughout the entire disease spectrum and, if needed, propose changes or additions